3
Rare Earth
5yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 41
Fairview · Betway Open Maiden (F & M) · 1m 1f 208y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 25/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 01/07/2026 | 4th | 8/13 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |