5
Double Distilled
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 39
Fairview · Betway Maiden Plate · 7f 210y
#11
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength80%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | ? | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-01-04 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 03/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 17/12/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/01/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/07/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |