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Kleinzee

5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 84

Fairview · Betway Conditions Plate (F & M) · 7f 210y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

95%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eight wins from 17 Flat runs. 6 wins from 7 runs this year. 83/100, didn't need to improve to win 7-runner minor event at Fairview (8f) 53 days ago. Very hard to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 10/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS10/1144 @ Kenilworth 17/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Durbanville 11/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS11/02C5C5 @ Fairview 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 7f210y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS1/05C5C5 @ Fairview 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS10/07C5C6 @ Fairview 24/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Std 137C5 @ Fairview 10/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS10/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-10Fairview?1st0th+1
2026-07-24Fairview?1st2nd−1
2026-07-10Fairview?1st0th+1
2026-06-12Fairview?1st0th+1
2026-05-01Fairview?1st0th+1
2026-03-27Fairview?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1127/0310/0710/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength89%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20254th22/10%57%+0.57
17/12/20259th16/116%20%+0.04
11/02/20267th22/10%14%+0.14
27/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
01/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
12/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
10/07/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
24/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
10/08/20261st4/596%100%+0.04