8
Johnny Drama
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 71
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 7f 210y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |