1
Joker Man
6yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 84
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 7f 210y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |