9
Policy Of Truth
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 7f 210y
#8
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-10-16 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2024 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 25/08/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/09/2024 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 16/10/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 10/11/2024 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 56% | +0.50 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |