7
Too Late My Mate
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 74
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |