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2

My Best Shot

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 92

Fairview · Betway Cradock Place Stakes · 5f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

8-time course winner. Eleven wins from 22 Flat runs. Respectable third of 10 in minor event (33/20) at Fairview (9.4f). Off 9 months. Significantly down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength83%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC4 @ Fairview 21/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS21/03C4C1 @ Fairview 09/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m3f205y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 06/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 1326/06C5C0 @ Greyville 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Fairview 15/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS15/08C1C5 @ Fairview 19/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 132C1 @ Fairview 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS31/10C1C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Fairview 29/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f98y Std 13529/12C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-12-29Fairview?3rd3rd0
2025-11-29Turffontein?11th7th+4
2025-10-31Fairview?2nd-2th+4
2025-09-19Fairview?1st1st0
2025-08-15Fairview?3rd-1th+4
2025-07-05Greyville?12th7th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/035/0731/1029/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
09/05/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
06/06/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
05/07/202512th28/10%35%+0.35
15/08/20253rd10/1195%67%-0.29
19/09/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
31/10/20252nd13/891%92%+0.00
29/11/202511th22/10%47%+0.47
29/12/20253rd6/492%78%-0.14