5
George Handel
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 76
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 86% | +0.80 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 19/06/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |