6
Hollandia Bakkerij
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72
Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 1f 208y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |