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3

Silvan Mistress

4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 74

Fairview · Betway Middle Stakes · 1m 1f 208y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

14/1, fourth of 7 in minor event at this course (7f, good to soft) 35 days ago. Significantly back up in trip. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fairview 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13231/10C?C7 @ Fairview 22/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 131C0 @ Fairview 23/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13223/01C?C1 @ Fairview 27/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Fairview 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 12813/03C?C0 @ Fairview 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 125C1 @ Fairview 08/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f206y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS8/05C1C1 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 28/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y GS 13228/08C5projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Fairview?4th5th−1
2026-08-14Fairview?9th5th+4
2026-05-08Fairview?6th2nd+4
2026-04-10Fairview?1st1st0
2026-03-13Fairview?1st1st0
2026-02-27Fairview?5th1st+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1027/028/0528/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/20255th16/116%33%+0.18
22/12/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
23/01/20264th33/10%50%+0.50
27/02/20265th40/10%20%+0.20
13/03/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
10/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
08/05/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
14/08/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
28/08/20264th11/142%50%+0.08