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4

Ivatt

4yo Gelding · 11-7

Gowran Park · Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful middle-distance handicapper on Flat. Improved on his hurdling debut form when smooth-travelling fifth at Navan (2m), not as well suited by the long run-in as the other principals. In top hands and could muster up a stronger finishing effort, if first-time hood has the desired effect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Musselburgh 19/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m4f104y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS19/0422 @ Kempton 09/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 11/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 79 · 1m3f219y Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2025 · OR 79 par11/084OR 793 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m4f98y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 79 par3 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 81 · 1m3f197y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2025 · OR 81 par11/093OR 812 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 82 · 1m4f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 82 parBHA81 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 81 · 1m3f180y Yie 141 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 81 par1/0881OR 81C8 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 2m140y Goo 155C8 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f165y Goo 16419/09C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?5th5th0
2026-08-16Tramore?3rd3rd0
2026-08-01GalwayBHA816th6th−0
2025-10-10Newmarket28th1st+6
2025-09-11Doncaster34th-2th+5
2025-08-21Newcastle36th0th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0421/081/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20253rd8/1196%50%-0.46
09/07/20255th11/142%64%+0.22
11/08/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
21/08/20256th5/174%58%-0.15
11/09/20254th15/261%77%+0.16
10/10/20258th14/126%36%+0.10
01/08/20266th18/15%67%+0.61
16/08/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
19/09/20265th10/382%73%-0.09