Michonne
4yo Filly · 11-0 · OR 123
Gowran Park · Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA86 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 5th | -4th | +8 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | 1 | 2nd | -7th | +7 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 6th | 2nd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2024 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 25/04/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 02/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 22/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |