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4yo Gelding · 11-7

Gowran Park · Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y

#13

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Wasn't unduly punished to make some late gains second time up over hurdles at Navan (2m, good to soft, 300/1). Still easy enough to look elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength90%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 9.6)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 1m4f17y Sft 1341/09C8BHA50 @ Bellewstown 02/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m4f77y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 50 parBHA48 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 48 · 1m4f46y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 48 par13/1048OR 48BHA45 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m4f207y Sft 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 45 parBHA44 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 44 · 1m4f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 44 par7/0744OR 44C8 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 2m150y Gd 154BHA40 @ Sligo 05/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m5f56y Yie 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 40 par5/0840OR 40BHA40 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 19th of 22 · OR 40 · 1m6f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 40 parC8 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f165y Goo 16419/09C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?10th10th0
2026-08-27NavanBHA4019th14th+4
2026-08-05SligoBHA409th4th+4
2026-07-23Wexford?5th5th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA448th4th+4
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA457th3rd+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0920/065/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20257th125/10%57%+0.57
02/10/20259th12/137%11%-0.26
13/10/202511th50/10%33%+0.33
20/06/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
07/07/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
23/07/20265th250/10%67%+0.67
05/08/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
27/08/202619th40/10%14%+0.14
19/09/202610th300/10%40%+0.40