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13

Sapphire Jewel

4yo Filly · 11-0

Gowran Park · Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y

#7

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

From a good jumping family. Showed a bit at long odds when distant third in Limerick bumper in March. Still very green in the face of a stiff task in Grade 3 at Punchestown the following month. At least worth noting for each-way support on hurdling debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: +7.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 15531/03C?1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR - · 2m132y Yie 157 · HIGHER CLASS29/041projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-29Punchestown113th4th+7
2026-03-31Limerick?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0329/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -60.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20263rd50/10%80%+0.80
29/04/202613th150/10%20%+0.20