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15

Carrigeen Ardisia

6yo Mare · 11-5

Gowran Park · Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held only outing in bumpers and didn't achieve much in a couple of hurdle starts earlier this year. Since joined new yard and looks up against it here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength94%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 28/01/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m56y Sta 158 · HIGHER CLASS28/0154 @ Catterick 05/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 1m7f156y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS5/0344 @ Southwell 27/03/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f182y Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS27/034projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-03-27Southwell46th1st+4
2025-03-05Catterick43rd-2th+4
2025-01-28Newcastle57th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/015/0327/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2281% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength76%

Delivery trend +34.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 22. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/01/20257th13/266%25%-0.41
05/03/20253rd50/10%33%+0.33
27/03/20256th33/10%29%+0.29