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13

The Captain's Word

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Gowran Park · Cantor Fitzgerald Ireland Maiden Hurdle · 2m 80y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made frame both starts in points and posted encouraging third of 16 in bumper at Punchestown (2m, good to soft) on NH debut 153 days ago. Merits consideration on hurdles bow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 2m Yie 1682/05C?
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-02Punchestown?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2295% of fieldRange 1-6 · 50%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength92%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 22. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20263rd11/271%87%+0.16