1
Daboya
5yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 121
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Pat Walsh Memorial Mares Hurdle · 2m 80y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA80 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA119 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA74 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA67 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 37% | +0.11 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 69% | +0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 73% | +0.18 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/09/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |