5
Gino Bella
6yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 115
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Pat Walsh Memorial Mares Hurdle · 2m 80y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
92%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA115 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA107 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA100 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA100 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-02 | Clonmel | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 94% | +0.18 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 62% | -0.23 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 95% | +0.58 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 87% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |