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4

Fortis Et Liber

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Gowran Park · 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner up once from 5 starts in point and left behind his first 2 efforts over hurdles when second of 9 in maiden at Downpatrick (2¾m) in August, benefiting from the extra distance. Could be in the mix.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 15814/07C8C8 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m5f180y Gd 15831/08C8projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Downpatrick?2nd2nd0
2026-08-14Tramore?0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 2079% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -68.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20262nd22/10%88%+0.88
31/08/20262nd6/168%88%+0.19