11
Muckanagh Lough
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Gowran Park · 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Punchestown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Leopardstown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2058% of fieldRange 3-20 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -9.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |