12

Spill A Drop

6yo Gelding · 11-12

Gowran Park · 1xBet.ie Supports Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y

#13

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner (dead-heated) who showed ability on Rules debut when sixth of 12 in maiden hurdle at Downpatrick (2¾m) in July. However, unseated at the first at Navan 13 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f185y Gd 15814/07C8
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 2047% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20266th33/10%55%+0.55