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12

Esticky End

8yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 87

Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 40y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has proved ungenuine but in an excellent vein of form at present and he bids for a hat-trick following a pair of 2m/2½m handicap wins at Wexford this summer. Up another 8 lb but form of latest win is proving solid and he's not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA77 @ Tramore 13/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 77 · 2m5f80y Yie 145 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 77 par13/0477OR 77BHA52 @ Gowran Park 23/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m5f160y Hvy 135 · beat its mark23/04/2025 · OR 52 parBHA72 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 72 · 2m11y Goo 140 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 72 par27/1172OR 72BHA50 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 120 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 50 parBHA72 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 72 · 2m1f53y Yie 140 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 72 par26/1272OR 72BHA72 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 72 · 2m1f Goo 140 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 72 parBHA72 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 72 · 2m1f55y Gd 140 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 72 par3/0772OR 72BHA73 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 73 · 2m150y Gd 141 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 73 parBHA79 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 79 · 2m4f55y Goo 149 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 79 par7/0879OR 79projClass-projected finish: 1st of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07WexfordBHA791st1st0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA731st1st0
2026-07-03WexfordBHA722nd2nd0
2026-05-30TramoreBHA720
2026-05-16WexfordBHA727th7th0
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA725th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0412/123/077/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2395% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 23. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/04/20259th40/10%33%+0.33
23/04/20259th66/10%11%+0.11
27/11/20255th50/10%67%+0.67
12/12/20256th25/10%62%+0.62
26/12/20255th9/153%79%+0.26
16/05/20267th25/10%54%+0.54
03/07/20262nd20/10%92%+0.92
23/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
07/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32