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11

Larkins Lane

7yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 88

Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 40y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Limerick before following up at Sligo in early summer. Advanced her form in first-time cheekpieces (retained) when a clear second of 16 in handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (19f, good) 29 days ago, closing all way to line. Big shout despite 3 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA78 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 78 · 2m4f Sft 148 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 78 par15/0178OR 78BHA77 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 77 · 2m2f188y Sft 145 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 77 parBHA76 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 76 · 2m4f110y Yie 144 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 76 par19/0476OR 76BHA74 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 21 · OR 74 · 3m80y Goo 142 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 74 parBHA72 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 72 · 2m3f200y Sft 141 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 72 par28/0572OR 72BHA78 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 78 · 2m4f162y Yie 148 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 78 parBHA85 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 85 · 2m4f116y Gd 153 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 85 par12/0785OR 85BHA85 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 85 · 2m4f55y Goo 155 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 85 parBHA85 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 85 · 2m3f Goo 142 · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 85 par3/0985OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03KilbegganBHA852nd2nd0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA854th4th0
2026-07-12SligoBHA858th8th0
2026-06-09SligoBHA781st1st0
2026-05-28LimerickBHA721st1st0
2026-05-10CorkBHA749th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0110/0512/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2377% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 23. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/20264th40/10%79%+0.79
26/03/20265th15/261%73%+0.13
19/04/20268th10/147%53%+0.06
10/05/20269th16/116%60%+0.44
28/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
09/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/07/20268th7/282%50%-0.32
07/08/20264th17/255%77%+0.22
03/09/20262nd8/158%93%+0.35