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19

Ordered Lives

11yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 79

Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 40y

#12

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since 2021. Off 18 months, below-form eighth of 13 in handicap hurdle here (2½m, heavy) in March. Needs to take a big step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Cartmel 29/05/2021 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 122 · 2m1f46y Gd 164 · below its mark29/05/2021 · OR 122 par29/053OR 1224 @ Worcester 28/09/2021 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 118 · 2m GS 164 · below its mark28/09/2021 · OR 118 parBHA109 @ Tramore 12/08/2022 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 109 · 2m Gd 168 · below its mark12/08/2022 · OR 109 par12/08109OR 109BHA105 @ Downpatrick 16/09/2022 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 105 · 2m2f165y Goo 164 · below its mark16/09/2022 · OR 105 parBHA102 @ Gowran Park 30/09/2022 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 102 · 2m4f Yie 161 · below its mark30/09/2022 · OR 102 par30/09102OR 102BHA88 @ Listowel 01/06/2024 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 88 · 2m7f100y Goo 162 · below its mark01/06/2024 · OR 88 parBHA88 @ Tipperary 04/07/2024 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 88 · 3m Yie 161 · below its mark04/07/2024 · OR 88 par4/0788OR 88BHA87 @ Wexford 30/08/2024 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 87 · 2m190y Yie 160 · below its mark30/08/2024 · OR 87 parBHA79 @ Gowran Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 79 · 2m4f Hvy 140 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 79 par7/0379OR 79projClass-projected finish: 20th of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-07Gowran ParkBHA798th8th0
2024-08-30WexfordBHA8710th10th0
2024-07-04TipperaryBHA8813th13th0
2024-06-01ListowelBHA883rd3rd0
2022-12-06TramoreBHA980
2022-09-30Gowran ParkBHA1027th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0516/094/077/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 2364% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength69%

Delivery trend +7.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 23. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20215th9/276%20%-0.56
28/09/20215th9/153%56%+0.03
12/08/20226th28/10%44%+0.44
16/09/20227th33/10%57%+0.57
30/09/20227th20/10%40%+0.40
01/06/20243rd33/10%88%+0.88
04/07/202413th20/10%29%+0.29
30/08/202410th40/10%25%+0.25
07/03/20268th50/10%42%+0.42