IvyArcIvyArc
14

Tara Boe

8yo Mare · 10-12 · OR 84

Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 4f 40y

#21

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#21

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly-raced maiden. Off 22 months, well held in a pair of maiden hurdles this summer, latest at Ballinrobe (2¼m, good) 21 days ago. Makes handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Downpatrick 15/07/2024 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m2f165y Gd 16115/07C?C0 @ Sligo 08/08/2024 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 2m2f86y Sft 1658/08C?C8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f110y Goo 15126/08C8C8 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f215y Goo 15311/09C8projClass-projected finish: 22nd of 23
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Ballinrobe?14th14th0
2026-08-26Bellewstown?8th8th0
2024-10-25Sligo?0
2024-08-08Sligo?9th9th0
2024-07-15Downpatrick?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/078/0826/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish23rd of 230% of fieldRange 18-23 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -17.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 23rd of 23. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20244th40/10%70%+0.70
08/08/20249th50/10%33%+0.33
26/08/20268th300/10%46%+0.46
11/09/202614th150/10%7%+0.07