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14

Ardera Gun

6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84

Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 40y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who shaped a bit better than being pulled up would suggest (briefly went second towards end of back straight) at Kilbeggan on final start last season. Unseated on reappearance at Wexford. Blinkers refitted and remains one to treat with a degree of caution.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Tramore 31/05/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 16231/05C?C0 @ Killarney 18/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 164C8 @ Cork 13/10/2024 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f100y Gd 16413/10C8C8 @ Wexford 28/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 2m100y Sft 153C8 @ Gowran Park 09/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR - · 2m Yie 1619/11C8BHA96 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 24 · OR 96 · 2m Hvy 164 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 96 parBHA95 @ Cork 07/12/2025 · Pos 15th of 24 · OR 95 · 2m4f Sft 153 · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 95 par7/1295OR 95BHA92 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 92 · 2m5f120y Sft 162 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 92 parBHA89 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 89 · 3m Goo 157 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 89 par12/0489OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 23
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28WexfordBHA850
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA870
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA897th7th0
2026-01-01TramoreBHA9210th10th0
2025-12-07CorkBHA9515th15th0
2025-11-16NavanBHA9613th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0528/107/1212/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 2377% of fieldRange 2-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 23. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20244th16/116%57%+0.41
18/07/20243rd12/137%80%+0.43
13/10/20249th22/10%0%0.00
28/10/20247th125/10%54%+0.54
09/11/20244th80/10%81%+0.81
16/11/202513th16/116%48%+0.32
07/12/202515th20/10%39%+0.39
01/01/202610th10/147%36%-0.12
12/04/20267th12/137%67%+0.30