1
Jonny Carrol
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 40y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Cork | BHA107 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-13 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Tipperary | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 23100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +12.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 23. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 14/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |