23
Lariat
10yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 77
Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 40y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA80 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | BHA40 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA83 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA40 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA41 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA83 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2391% of fieldRange 1-18 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 23. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.12 |
| 29/08/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 69% | +0.64 |
| 29/09/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 22/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 30/10/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 07/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 19/09/2026 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |