11
Midnight Musical
5yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 88
Gowran Park · Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 4f 40y
#22
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#22
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 9.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA90 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA92 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aintree | 1 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish21st of 239% of fieldRange 5-23 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 21st of 23.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 93% | +0.77 |
| 15/11/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 13/12/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 09/04/2026 | 20th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 73% | -0.16 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/08/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |