5
Arctic Flame
6yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 115
Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA115 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA116 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA110 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA109 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 9-16 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 01/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |