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12

Brucejack

9yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 106

Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y

#14

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thorough stayer who finally got off the mark when winning 10-runner handicap chase at Down Royal (3¼m, good to soft) in May. However, not seen since and likely to be tapped for speed on hurdling return over much shorter trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Fairyhouse 01/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 109 · 3m5f160y Yie 140 · beat its mark01/12/2024 · OR 109 par1/121OR 109BHA117 @ Punchestown 12/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 117 · 2m6f148y Sft 166 · below its mark12/01/2025 · OR 117 parBHA110 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 110 · 2m4f Hvy 166 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 110 par8/11110OR 1101 @ Fairyhouse 30/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 110 · 3m6f Yie 140 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 110 par2 @ Haydock 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 117 · 3m1f125y Sft 142 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 117 par20/122OR 117BHA110 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 110 · 3m4f61y Yie 161 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 110 parC8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 107 · 2m7f122y Sft 164 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 107 par26/03C8OR 107BHA107 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 3m2f50y Goo 154 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 107 parBHA114 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 114 · 3m7f68y Yie 140 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 114 par2/05114OR 114projClass-projected finish: 5th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-02PunchestownBHA1147th7th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA1071st1st0
2026-03-26Clonmel?5th5th0
2026-03-02LeopardstownBHA1108th8th0
2026-01-11PunchestownBHA1120
2025-12-20Haydock26th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1230/1126/032/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength55%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/12/20245th6/168%67%-0.02
12/01/20252nd3/184%90%+0.06
08/11/20254th5/174%81%+0.08
30/11/20254th10/147%79%+0.31
20/12/20256th14/126%55%+0.28
02/03/20268th11/142%42%-0.00
26/03/20265th18/15%69%+0.64
12/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
02/05/20267th11/271%67%-0.04