2
Come On The Lads
6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 118
Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA119 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA121 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA79 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | BHA125 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | BHA117 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Wexford | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 27/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 24/05/2026 | 17th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 01/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 58% | +0.21 |