7
Katie Daniels
7yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 114
Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | BHA114 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | BHA110 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Limerick | BHA110 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-21 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/12/2024 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 21/11/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 64% | +0.06 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |