16
Lucy Wang
6yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 100
Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#16
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA103 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA104 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-02-20 | Punchestown | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2024-12-07 | Navan | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 14-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2023 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 27/12/2023 | 2nd | 150/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 02/05/2024 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/05/2024 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 07/12/2024 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 20/02/2025 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 06/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 33% | -0.62 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 15/2 | 61% | 6% | -0.55 |
| 19/09/2026 | 13th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |