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8

Nelson Muntz

7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 113

Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y

#11

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Reliable sort posted a good second in first-time blinkers (retained) on Flat at Tramore before possibly finding the run coming too soon when sixth of 14 in handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (2½m, good) in July. Freshened up since and he's weighted to go well. Engaged 1.49 Clonmel Thursday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA73 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 73 · 2m Std 123 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 73 par28/1173OR 73C8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 115 · 2m Yie 161 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 115 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 117 · 2m4f Sft 165 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 117 par15/01C8OR 117BHA70 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m4f Sft 130 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 70 parBHA116 @ Punchestown 01/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 24 · OR 116 · 2m45y Yie 162 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 116 par1/05116OR 116C0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 166BHA68 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 2m Goo 136 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 68 par7/0768OR 68BHA115 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 115 · 2m4f Goo 146 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 115 parBHA113 @ Clonmel 01/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 113 · 2m166y Gd 169 · below its mark01/10/2026 · OR 113 par1/10113OR 113projClass-projected finish: 7th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01ClonmelBHA1134th4th0
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA1156th6th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA682nd2nd0
2026-05-29Tramore?5th5th0
2026-05-01PunchestownBHA11613th13th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA7011th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1128/037/071/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength44%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20258th33/10%42%+0.42
26/12/20254th25/10%82%+0.82
15/01/20263rd7/163%50%-0.13
28/03/202611th22/10%23%+0.23
01/05/202613th25/10%48%+0.48
29/05/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
07/07/20262nd10/147%90%+0.43
10/07/20266th15/261%62%+0.01
01/10/20264th5/174%73%-0.01