IvyArcIvyArc
15

Ocean Murphy

4yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 103

Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Found improvement over hurdles this season, opening his account at Wexford in July and adding to that victory when landing 5-runner handicap hurdle at Ballinrobe (2¼m, good) 39 days ago, driven out. This is more competitive but he is not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f70y Goo 15412/10C?C0 @ Cork 23/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f75y Yie 154C8 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16114/02C8BHA95 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m5f185y Yie 152 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 95 parBHA94 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 94 · 2m6f120y Gd 157 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 94 par2/0794OR 94BHA92 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 92 · 2m4f Gd 145 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 92 parBHA98 @ Wexford 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 2m4f50y Goo 155 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 98 par8/0898OR 98BHA98 @ Ballinrobe 24/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 98 · 2m2f44y Gd 144 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 98 par24/0898OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24BallinrobeBHA981st1st0
2026-08-08WexfordBHA982nd2nd0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA921st1st0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA949th9th0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA954th4th0
2026-02-14Gowran Park?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1029/038/0824/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1687% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength77%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/202511th40/10%29%+0.29
23/11/20255th150/10%64%+0.64
14/02/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
29/03/20264th25/10%77%+0.77
02/07/20269th14/126%53%+0.27
23/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
08/08/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
24/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13