4
The Friday Man
9yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 116
Gowran Park · Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 40y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Kilbeggan | BHA122 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-16 | Kilbeggan | BHA125 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Clonmel | BHA127 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2024-10-02 | Sligo | BHA118 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-09-18 | Tramore | BHA111 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2023 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 23/05/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/07/2024 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 18/09/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/10/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 01/05/2025 | 19th | 80/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |