8
False Dawn
4yo Filly · 11-6
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed) · 2m 100y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -66.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |