4
Thelittleballerina
5yo Mare · 11-7
Gowran Park · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed) · 2m 100y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Listowel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength56%
Delivery trend -31.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |