11

Sherpa Queen

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 26

Greyville · Lucky Fish Lucky Break Maiden Plate (F & M) · 5f 212y

#15

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★ Timeform

Commentary

Eleventh of 16 in maiden (100/1) at Scottsville (6f, good). Off 138 days.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Scottsville 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Sft 13226/04C8C8 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13217/05C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-17Scottsville?11th11th0
2026-04-26Scottsville?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0417/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +33.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20268th25/10%0%0.00
17/05/202611th66/10%33%+0.33