6
The Swan Song
3yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 80
Greyville · Tote For The Win Mr 95 Open Handicap (3-Year-Olds) · 6f 211y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 1.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 5 | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-27 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength84%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |