2
Thunder Star
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 69
Greyville · Tote For The Win Mr 95 Open Handicap (3-Year-Olds) · 6f 211y
#7
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-04-05 | Scottsville | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength35%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |