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3

King Pelles

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 107

Greyville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za Conditions Plate · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Eight wins from 29 Flat runs. 13/10, dead-heat last of 12 to Holding Thumbs in Gr 3 at this course (15.9f, good) 68 days ago. Significantly back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.9
Today:
Class gap: +3.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Greyville 27/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m7f200y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS27/07C1C5 @ Greyville 12/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 07/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1337/11C5C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1f153y GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS8/02C5C1 @ Scottsville 15/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS17/05C5C0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m7f200y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C1projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?12th7th+4
2026-07-04Greyville?3rd-3th+5
2026-05-17Scottsville?4th3rd+1
2026-03-15Scottsville?2nd-3th+4
2026-02-08Scottsville?1st0th+1
2025-11-29Turffontein?12th7th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0729/1117/0526/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
12/10/20255th33/10%64%+0.64
07/11/20252nd9/153%80%+0.27
29/11/202512th7/282%42%-0.39
08/02/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
15/03/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
17/05/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
04/07/20263rd33/10%88%+0.88
26/07/202612th11/1094%0%-0.94