Madison Valley
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 98
Greyville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za Conditions Plate · 6f 211y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 2nd | +5 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 14th | 9th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/11/2025 | 14th | 5/1 | 74% | 32% | -0.42 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 58% | -0.18 |
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |