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9

Mocha Blend

5yo Mare · 8-6 · OR 106

Greyville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za Conditions Plate · 6f 211y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Career best when winning 12-runner Gr 2 at this course (9.9f, good, 20/1) 68 days ago by 1¼ lengths from Kisshoten. Back down in trip. Standard bearer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: +3.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Greyville 24/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS24/05C?C0 @ Greyville 27/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Greyville 07/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS7/10C5C4 @ Turffontein 09/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS29/11C1C5 @ Greyville 09/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 118C0 @ Greyville 06/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS6/06C?C0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?1st-4th+5
2026-07-04Greyville?9th3rd+5
2026-06-06Greyville?7th2nd+5
2026-05-09Greyville?4th4th0
2025-11-29Turffontein?1st-4th+4
2025-11-09Turffontein?2nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/059/116/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20253rd12/137%83%+0.46
27/07/20254th12/137%77%+0.40
07/10/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
09/11/20252nd7/282%90%+0.08
29/11/20251st40/10%100%+1.00
09/05/20264th9/153%40%-0.13
06/06/20267th18/15%50%+0.45
04/07/20269th12/137%53%+0.16
26/07/20261st16/116%100%+0.84