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4

Otto Luyken

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 99

Greyville · Bet With Tote www.tote.co.za Conditions Plate · 6f 211y

#10

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 14/1, good 1¾ lengths third of 11 to Magic Verse in Gr 3 at this course (10.9f, good) 90 days ago. Significantly down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: +3.9
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Kenilworth 25/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m1f153y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS25/05C1C3 @ Greyville 05/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m2f206y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Turffontein 01/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 7f210y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS1/11C?C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 16th of 20 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS28/02C1C1 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS3/05C1C1 @ Kenilworth 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m1f153y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC3 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS4/07C3projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Greyville?3rd1st+2
2026-05-24Kenilworth?2nd-3th+4
2026-05-03Kenilworth?5th0th+4
2026-04-06Kenilworth?7th2nd+4
2026-02-28Kenilworth?7th2nd+4
2025-11-29Turffontein?16th11th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0529/113/054/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength42%

Delivery trend -4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
05/07/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
01/11/20255th18/15%73%+0.68
29/11/202516th14/126%21%-0.05
28/02/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
06/04/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
03/05/20265th25/10%43%+0.43
24/05/20262nd13/266%83%+0.18
04/07/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43