5
Fleur De Ling
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 69
Greyville · Lucky Fish Diamond Riches Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-08 | Scottsville | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |