1
Mystic Dancer
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 12
Greyville · Lucky Fish Diamond Riches Class 4 (F & M) · 4f 214y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Greyville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Greyville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 4th | 1/3 | 98% | 70% | -0.28 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 14/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |