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6

Captain Ventura

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 61

Greyville · Gallop TV Class 5 (F & M) · 4f 214y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 10/1 and tongue strap on for 1st time, sixth of 7 in handicap at Greyville (6f, AW) 8 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Scottsville 18/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 4f214y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS18/0244 @ Scottsville 15/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 03/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS3/0444 @ Greyville 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 17/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS17/0544 @ Greyville 22/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 19/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS19/0744 @ Scottsville 09/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Greyville 24/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 13324/095projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Greyville56th6th0
2026-08-09Scottsville411th10th+1
2026-07-19Scottsville48th7th+1
2026-06-22Greyville45th4th+1
2026-05-17Scottsville46th5th+1
2026-04-17Greyville47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0217/0419/0724/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/02/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
15/03/20269th13/266%11%-0.55
03/04/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
17/04/20267th20/10%40%+0.40
17/05/20266th33/10%58%+0.58
22/06/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
19/07/20268th17/255%22%-0.33
09/08/202611th18/15%0%-0.05
24/09/20266th9/153%17%-0.36